A Cold End to the Weekend

The warm, dry, and sunny fall weather will continue in the Colorado Front Range Mountains and Foothills into the start of the weekend. Temperatures will be reaching into the low to mid 70s F on Friday and the low 70s F on Saturday. Models have been trending towards a strong cold front dipping into Northern Colorado on Sunday.  While this front looks to be dry, daytime temperatures on Sunday and Monday will likely stay in the 50s F with lows around freezing.

The warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low humidity on Friday will result in heightened fire danger in and around Nederland. We have had little more than a trace of precipitation since our snow storm earlier this month.  We are very dry and no where near being “out of the woods” with respect to fire. A look at the GFS 384 total precipitation shows almost no precipitation for us over the next few weeks:




Not only are we dry, but most of Califnoria, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Nebraska are also devoid of precipitation. That is a bit depressing, because there are many fires burning in California and a few in Colorado, and it will likely take a persistent snowpack or more frequent rain to get them under control. We are also getting into the windy season. And this will be a La Nina winter which tends to be blusterier than normal.

As I mentioned much colder air will settled into Colorado Sunday through Monday.  With highs only in the 50s F, gusty winds will make it feel much colder. We also may see another freeze on Sunday night.  Here is the GFS Skew T for Monday Morning.  Notice the low level cold air and temperatures at 750 mb (about 8000 feet) around 34 F:



The hodograph (the circular chart on the right) shows strong winds. If you are planning a hike in the Indian Peaks or a 14’er on Monday, winds will be gusting to 50 mph or more with temperatures at 12000 feet around 22 F. This will produce wind chills as low as 0 F which is brisk.

We have had a reprive from smoke. The Air Now smoke map shows most of the smoke from the California fires streaming to our northwest:




Enjoy the next few days. At least the start of the weekend will be pleasant.



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