Computer models continue to show a strong storm system affecting the weather of the Front Range mountains and foothills beginning on Friday and lasting into Saturday morning. This system, which is currently over northern California will, track to near the Nevada/Utah border by Thursday evening and then to a position just north of the Four Corners by Friday morning. This cut-off low is then expected to weeble and wobble to somewhere over southeastern Colorado by Saturday morning.
Initially it looked like the models were trying to track this storm too far to the south. Now, the storm track has shifted northward. Despite this, there is still plenty of uncertainty about how much precipitation will fall in northeastern Colorado. On the plus side, this storm will be able to entrain plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture as it approaches us on Thursday and Friday. However, this storm is warm, and determining where the snow level is going to set up is challenging. On top of that, even though the storm track is favorable and there is plenty of moisture and atmospheric lift, the computer models have been less generous with precipitation amounts in recent runs.
I’ve spent some time reading and watching local forecasts from the National Weather Service, television, and other online sources,and the consensus is that snow levels will start out between 8000 and 9000 feet on Friday and lower to between 6000 and 6500 feet by Saturday morning. Nederland and the surrounding foothills communities could see a brief period of rain on Friday afternoon before everything changes over to snow by early evening. Then, the snow should continue Friday night into Saturday morning before tapering off by midday.
Many of the ingredients are there for a good, heavy, wet spring snowfall here in Ned. The consensus seems to be that 8 to 12 inches are possible before all is said and done with some sources saying up to 15 inches. Deep easterly upslope winds combined with ample moisture and lift seem to support a decent snowfall in the foothills and a rain event on the plains – much needed moisture for a parched landscape.
We’ll see what tomorrow’s model runs show, but we are in store for some much needed precipitation!