Temperatures on Thursday morning bottomed out around 23 F here at our home just east of Nederland, Colorado, and the high was only 43 F. Thursday night will see lows in the 20-25 F range before temperatures moderate somewhat for the weekend. Along with the warmer temperatures the winds will be returning as well, and they are expected to be particularly strong and gusty Friday night and Saturday. Due to these winds and the forecast low humidity, the National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for Nederland and the surrounding Foothills communities starting midday Friday and continuing through Saturday evening. Looking at the latest NAM based upper level soundings, it looks like the strongest winds will be Friday night into early Saturday morning when winds could be gusting over 50 mph:
This is not good news for the Cameron Peak Fire. It also makes me very uneasy as any fire under these conditions can quickly turn into a wind-driven raging inferno. Also, there is still no precipitation in our forecast, and the models are not showing anything for at least the next few weeks. We’ve had almost no precipitation this month, and October 2020 is on track for being one of the driest I have observed in my 11 years of records for the month.
Aside from the wind and the constant fear of fire, the temperatures this weekend should be near to slightly above normal with highs of 55-60 F and lows in the mid 30s F with plenty of sunshine. Overall, not bad for mid October, but boy it should would be nice to get some rain or snow.
I took this snapshot of the Weather Underground observed temperature map on Thursday afternoon. Notice how shallow the colder air was. Temperatures were near 50 F in Nederland, but just to the east in the slightly lower Foothills, it was only in the 30s and lower 40s F. At one point, there was a 10 degree F difference between our house and our neighbors house about 100 feet higher in elevation. That is quite an inversion!
